The machine tool industry continues to thrive
The ten-year update cycle has started, and in the next 3-5 years, there will be strong demand for machine tool updates. Normally, the update cycle of CNC machine tools is 10 years. According to the data from the China Machine Tool Industry Association, the last peak period of China's machine tool consumption was from 2010 to 2014. Based on a 10-year update cycle, China's machine tool consumption should start to enter the update and replacement cycle in 2020. Affected by the outbreak of the new crown epidemic Affected by the impact, domestic machine tool consumption will continue to decline in 2020, but will rebound rapidly from 2021. According to statistics from the German Machine Tool Manufacturers Association (VDW), China's machine tool consumption will be about 170.4 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 22.6%. As the impact of the new crown epidemic weakens, China's economy gradually recovers, and investment confidence in the downstream manufacturing industry recovers. It is expected that in the next three years, the demand for replacement of machine tools will remain relatively strong.
In the medium and long term, China may enter the stage of active inventory replenishment in the second half of 2023, driving investment growth in machine tools and other production equipment. We use the operating income of industrial enterprises to represent the market demand, and the inventory of finished goods of industrial enterprises to represent the inventory situation. Since China joined the WTO in 2002, China has gone through five complete inventory cycles, with an average cycle time of 40.2 months.
The rapid growth of the new energy automobile manufacturing industry has driven new demand for machine tools. With the rapid increase in the penetration rate of China's new energy vehicles and integrated die-casting, its new demand-pull effect on CNC machine tools has gradually emerged.
1) Power system: Compared with traditional fuel vehicles, new energy vehicles have undergone significant changes in the power system. The power system of traditional vehicles is an internal combustion engine, which requires corresponding machine tools to process parts such as engine block, cylinder head, crankshaft, camshaft and connecting rod. . The power system of new energy vehicles consists of batteries, motors, and electronic controls, and requires the development of customized machine tools for processing.
2) Integrated die-casting: The integrated die-casting molding process can obtain complete parts in one die-casting process, replacing the traditional complicated stamping + welding process, greatly shortening the manufacturing time, greatly reducing the number of parts used, reducing the weight of the car body, and increasing the strength of the car body , is the development direction of new energy vehicles.
It is estimated that from 2023 to 2025, the new demand for machine tools brought about by the integrated die-casting process will reach 6.72 billion yuan, with an annual average of 2.24 billion yuan.
The key assumptions are as follows:
① Assume that by 2025, China's auto production will increase slightly to 28 million;
② Penetration rate of new energy vehicles reaches 50%;
③ The penetration rate of integrated die-casting reaches 50%;
④ The annual production capacity of a single die-casting machine is 100,000 pieces, and 16 supporting machine tools are required.
Taiye Machinery was founded in 2005, the company is located in the beautiful Zhejiang, China，Taiye machine provide a full set of professional extrusion die equipment and extrusion dies, We have an aluminum extrusion die factory and a professional extrusion die equipment company in China. Our machine tools product include machining center, CNC lathe, wire cut EDM machine, EDM machine, Vacuum Furnace, etc.
